Diffusion Control in the Renewable Energy Transition: Scarcity, Replacements, and Circularity

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Emre Nadar

We study how strategically delaying technology adoption (i.e., diffusion control) influences long-term renewable energy generation. We show that diffusion dynamics (as per the Bass model) are critical in this context as renewable energy technologies improve in efficiency over time and face scarcity of and geopolitical dependencies for materials critical in their production. We find that delaying adoption is an effective lever to increase long-term green energy generation if the renewable technology efficiency is rapidly improving and word-of-mouth effects in adoption are marginal. Critical material scarcity does not always accentuate the value of delaying adoption, but it does more so if the word-of-mouth effects in adoption are stronger. The possibility of technology updates (e.g., replacing old solar panels with newer more efficient versions) can further increase the value of such strategies. Surprisingly, circularity (e.g., recycling discarded older generation products) need not go hand-in-hand with diffusion control. This is because leveraging circularity requires an installed base of adoption to enable future reusable supplies, which can be dampened by delayed adoptions. Moreover, more effective circularity provides higher critical material availability for more efficient technologies and reduces the need for diffusion control. This dependency hinges on renewable energy generation efficiency and diffusion dynamics in a non-trivial fashion. We illustrate our results in the context of wind turbines and photovoltaic panels based on adoption data in different geographies. This study is a joint work with Nilsu Uzunlar from Carnegie Mellon University and Atalay Atasu from INSEAD.

Short Bio

Emre Nadar is an associate professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering at Bilkent University. He holds a Ph.D. degree in Operations Management from Carnegie Mellon University and a B.S. degree in Industrial Engineering from Bilkent University. His research interests include supply chain management, sustainable operations, and renewable energy and energy storage operations.

Venue

Friday, December 19, 2025, 4.00 pm

IE Building, Halim Doğrusöz Auditorium (IE 03)