Product-line Planning Under Uncertainty

Şakir Karakaya
Head of Product Safety and Market Surveillance Department, Ministry of Industry and Technology

Abstract

This study addresses the problem of a multi-period mix of product-lines under a product- family,
which incorporates launching decisions of new products, capacity expansion decisions and product
interdependencies. The problem is modeled as a two-stage stochastic program with recourse in which
price, demand, production cost and cannibalization effect of new products are treated as uncertain
parameters. The solution approach employs the Sample Average Approximation based on the Monte
Carlo bounding technique and multi-cut version of the L-shaped method to solve approximate
problems efficiently, which is tested on different cases considering VSS and EVPI performance
measures. The data collected through two experimental studies is analyzed using ANOVA and
Random Forest methodology in order to understand which problem parameters are significant on the
performance measures and to generate some rule-based inferences reflecting the relationship between
significant parameters and the performance of the proposed stochastic model.

Short Bio

Şakir Karakaya received his Ph.D. (2018) and MS (2008) degrees in Industrial Engineering Department at
METU. He also completed an MS program on Public Management and Governance at the London School of
Economics and Political Science (LSE) in 2016. His professional life started in the National Productivity
Center of Turkey (MPM) in 2004, where he was providing training and consultancy services for enterprises
on quality management, reorganization and process improvement for over eight years. After joining the
Ministry of Industry and Technology in 2012, he carried out many projects such as feasibility analysis for
model factories, development of strategies for management consultancy sector, national rewarding systems on
productivity, a new model for market surveillance and standardization system in Turkey. Currently, he is the
Head of Product Safety and Market Surveillance Department in the Ministry of Industry and Technology, and
supervises the planning, monitoring, data analysis, system design and legal affairs regarding to product safety.
His expertise area mainly focuses on public policy analysis, strategy development, quality and product
management. He is also an avid reader of mythology, Sumerians, and history of religions.

Venue: Friday, December 6, 2019 at 4.00 pm in IE 03