From Systems to Technology: Managing Complexity in Health Systems

Assist.Prof.Dr. Özge Karanfil

Health systems are inherently complex, adaptive systems characterized by dynamic interactions among clinical evidence, human behavior, technological innovation, and policy design. This lecture introduces a system dynamics perspective to understanding and managing such complexity, emphasizing how endogenous feedback structures generate long-term patterns, including oscillations, delays, and policy resistance. Drawing on a range of case studies and applications (e.g., PSA screening for prostate cancer, evidence-based guideline formation, and emerging medical technologies such as multi-cancer early detection), I demonstrate how dynamic simulation models can reveal the underlying mechanisms driving observed system behavior—and also inform more robust and equitable policy design.

The session will highlight key systems modeling concepts, including causal loop diagrams, stock-and-flow structures, and behavioral decision dynamics, supported by empirical data, field research, and simulation. Emphasis will be placed on the role of Industrial Engineering in bridging operations, decision-making, and public health, and on how we can contribute to addressing pressing global challenges through interdisciplinary, model-based approaches. In addition, the session will highlight findings from a recent scoping review and science mapping analysis of the health systems literature from 1965 to 2025, examining the evolution of systems thinking and modeling approaches across methodological traditions and application domains. Over the past decades, a range of complex systems methodologies—including system dynamics, agent-based modeling, network science, and compartmental models—have been increasingly applied to understand and inform health systems. However, a comprehensive, longitudinal assessment of how these approaches have evolved, diffused, and interacted across disciplines remains limited. By providing a fieldlevel perspective, this study advances understanding of how complex systems methodologies have shaped—and been shaped by—health systems research.

Finally, the talk reflects on the role of Industrial Engineering in advancing health system transformation, emphasizing opportunities to contribute to more resilient, efficient, and equitable systems through model-based decision support, interdisciplinary collaboration, and science-to-policy translation.

Short Bio

Özge Karanfil is an assistant professor at Koç University, jointly appointed at the College of Administrative Sciences and Economics and the School of Medicine. She is a faculty affiliate at the KU Center for Translational Medicine (KUTTAM) and the KU Center for Infectious Diseases (KUISCID) research centers, and a Research Affiliate at MIT Sloan School of Management. She received her BSc and MSc degrees in Industrial Engineering from Boğaziçi University, an MSc degree in Physiology from McGill University, and a Ph.D. from MIT Sloan School of Management, with a concentration in health system dynamics. She completed her postdoctoral studies as a Yerby Fellow at the Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Global Health and Population, at the Health Systems Innovation Lab (HSIL).

At the intersection of business administration, engineering, and medical sciences, Dr. Karanfil aims to leverage data analysis through a multidisciplinary approach to contribute to the academic community as well as to shaping policy-relevant outcomes. Dr. Karanfil received the Best Undergraduate Paper Award at YAEM in 2002, the Dana Meadows Award for the Best Student Paper in 2006, the Lupina Young Researchers Award for the Best Healthcare Paper in 2017, the Koç–Harvard Visiting Scholar Fellowship by the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Harvard University (2019–2023), the Yerby Fellowship by Harvard School of Public Health, and the TÜBİTAK 2232 International Fellowship for Outstanding Researchers.

With a focus on management science and a strong footing in complex systems analysis, her tenure at Koç University has been dedicated to tackling pressing global health challenges. She has been organizing the Harvard HSIL Hackathon and the Turkey/Istanbul hub for the last two years.

Venue

Friday, March 27, 2026, 4.00 pm

IE Building, Halim Doğrusöz Auditorium (IE 03)